2018 Winter Garden Year Summary

A year in the making!

Welcome to the only place to get an accurate break down of the Winter Garden market and in-depth analysis from Winter Gardens TOP SELLING REALTOR. You will not find this much data regarding Winter Garden anywhere else. As you probably are aware, Ron the Realtor sells more homes in zip code 34787 than anyone in America… 2018 was no different, RTR sold and closed more homes than anyone! Even beating all the major national home builders! Winter Garden remains RED HOT,  with no stop in sight. Never been a better time in Winter Gardens long history.

148.65

$/ft

7.6

Increase

373,186

Average Sale Price

8

Increase

51

Days on market

7.8

Increase

Here it is, a year in the making…

the breakdown of the entire Winter Garden market

Winter Garden experienced the greatest amount of development and growth in its history in 2018. Please understand that these numbers while deemed accurate, only tell a portion of the true Winter Garden Market. New Home development is at an all-time high, practically every major national home builder and numerous local ones are staking their claim in the Horizons West District. Offering the Winter Garden buyer more choices than ever in the history of 34787.

The Multiple Listing Service (MLS) only captures a small portion of the new home construction market. Typically the inventory spec homes are placed on the MLS to gain awareness through the shared IDX system. Typically these are not the prime lots, the savvy builders will select some of the less desirable lots to build spec inventory on. They know they need to sell it anyway, so they just start building one to four of their most popular floor plans.

The Orlando market is hot that a buyer has always presented themselves wanting the brand new over resale. Why I am spending time mentioning this is because it is important. As stated constantly through these reports data is only useful if you apply it to the real world, it is not in a bubble. The majority of these new home community sales ARE NOT RECORDED ON THE MLS. In fact, until approximately 4 years ago, new home builders rarely used the MLS as a marketing tool at all.

So what ?… well the Winter Garden area is being developed at an alarming ate, thousands of additional sales were closed in the area that is not reflected in these tables below. These sales are brand new homes with hand-picked design selections. More importantly, anyone that has been to a new home community sales model understands the concept of a lot premium. These premiums can go upwards of 350k for the right lot in the right community. These are the sales not reflected in these data tables.

“Zestimates” are not accurate, they do not apply what I bring to the table. Open door will make an offer on your home with tens of thousands in built in fees… a new local mortgage company is advertising zero listing commissions… but I have proven time and time again that if you give me the chance, I will net your family more money with a small amount of additional effort (showings) through my worldwide market plan and unmatched knowledge of the area. This is why these reports are done and shared. Knowledge is power and to become a true expert of anything you need to work every day at it. For almost 2 decades I have done this in SW Orlando at a level unmatched by my competition. My clients year after year are able to outperform the market and exceed their real estate goals, all while receiving 5 star service and unmatched level of advice throughout the entire process.

RTR Breakdown

2018 units sold in Winter Garden 34787

2017 units sold in Winter Garden 34787

73 more units closed with 4 days on market improvement and healthy increases on every major category, all beating the national and even local markets.

With a $28,000 INCREASE in average closed price and almost $10/ ft jump .. it is hard to argue that Winter Garden is a place on the rise.

In typical RTR fashion lets drill this down further…

What an amazing year Winter Garden has experienced in 2018

73 more units closed with 4 days on market improvement and healthy increases on every major category, all beating the national and even local markets.

With a $28,000 INCREASE in average closed price and almost $10/ ft jump .. it is hard to argue that Winter Garden is a place on the rise.

In typical RTR fashion lets drill this down further…

8

Increase in Sold Price

7.6

Increase in $/ft.

7.8

Increase Days on market

Lets break it down to Single Family Only

2018 Single Family sold in Winter Garden 34787

2017 Single Family sold in Winter Garden 34787

148.65

$/ft

373,186

Average Sale Price

51

Days on market

The $/ft improved by double digits and average sale price almost did the same. Truly amazing that the average closed price for a home in Winter Garden in 2018 was $405,929, 4 bed 3 bath 2717 sq ft and it took an average 56 days to close from list. The Winter Garden market achieved a very strong 98% list to sale price and the highest closed sale happened in March, a new home in the community of Waterside on the SE shoreline of Johns Lake.  16083 Broadwater closed at $2,073,100 ! 5700 htd sq ft and 5 bed 5.5 baths.

9

Increase in Sold Price

11

Increase in $/ft.

3

Increase Days on market

Winter Garden Market Review

2018 is in the books. We experienced on a National level, the FED raising rates an astounding 4th time in one year, if you recall this was predicted in the 3rd quarter report I released. This really did not stop the growth of Winter Garden as sales continued all the way through to the end. As the baby boomer population continues to age and as the North Eastern and West Coast States continue to heavily burden their residents with more and more taxation, they are flocking here in droves. Not to get political but if Gilliam won the race for governor, he was campaigning on implementing not only a State income tax but many other increases across the board. Even after the wasteful recount, common sense prevailed and the Sunshine State will continue to be a haven for growth and lower taxes. This is not to spur on any type of political debate, this is mentioned to emphasize the 2018 year in review and establish a basis for the 2019 predictions that are based in real-world factors.

In 2018, the Horizons West area experienced the largest transformation. With practically every home builder in the country with shovels in the ground. The Hamlin retail center is talking shape. The Hamlin Publix and the Luxury cineplex opened their doors for business, both of which are the nicest in the entire region. Numerous other retail and restaurant venues have broken ground. The area will be transformed even further in the year to come, improving the quality of life for everyone in the area. The historic Plant Street district continues to boom and is a beacon of revitalization the entire country is taking note of. Numerous new restaurants have opened their doors. The events such as light up Winter Garden, the classic car show and the what could almost be world famous Saturdays Farmers Market continue to break attendance records with each new event. Property values and demand are at an all-time high in the area with many homes experiencing 75-100% valuation jumps in the last 10 years! The coastline of Johns Lake off Marsh Road continues to see development at an unprecedented scale, with almost every foot of shoreline being developed in 2019.

Final Ramblings and Heart Felt Note

Winter Garden is an amazing community, on elike no other with its diversity not only in architecture but its communities and demographics. Nowhere in the country can you find such a massive cross-section of real estate. From $50,000 teardowns east of Dillard St to $3,000,000 estates on the shores of Johns Lake. The Historic District of Plant street to the state of the art Hamlin retail district being developed. Two new high schools, a handful of middle and elementary schools and Orange counties largest sports complex are all in the works for Winter Garden and it’s residents in the near future.

I chose to move to Winter Garden in 2000. I closed on my new home in Stoneybrook west in 2001. I have loved this area ever since and have raised my 3 children here, built my business here and have helped over 2200 families buy and sell in the area. No one on this planet has sold more homes in Winter Garden than myself over last 14 years, no one is even close. I am so blessed to be able to say this.

Ron the Realtors

2019 Market Predictions

It was an insanely accurate prediction like it consistently is year in and year out. 2018 experienced (for those that didn’t read the report and skipped to this section) an 8% jump in average sale price… 9% if you just account for single-family homes. The median 6.3% and 8.5% respectfully.

Even more impressive is $375,000 was the average sale price predicted for 2018… Winter Garden closed out at $373,186 !!! BOOM

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the 2019 housing market on the National Level. The FED raising the rate in December and the horrible final month in the stock market fueled the fire on recession speculation. I am not smart enough to predict the next national recession and honestly, if I was I would be far wealthier. I have thought the stock market has been inflated for several years and when we broke 25000 I was astounded when we broke 27000 I had no words.

I know one thing very, very well. Better than probably most on this planet. Winter Garden real estate. I have devoted almost half my life to it. Saying this, Winter Garden property values are as solid as they come for the foreseeable future. While there are some indicators that one could easily jump up and say the sky is falling, this has happened throughout our history and if you throw enough darts even a blind man will hit a bullseye. You have to see what I see in the day to day to understand this. The majority of the purchases are an owner occupant, not investor. The financing is predominantly conventional loans in the Winter Garden Area or all cash. There is a solid bedrock of equity. More importantly, there is massive future growth planned and the current growth is outpacing the expectations of even the “experts”.

1837 Lake Roberts Landing Dr Winter Garden, FL 34787

5730 Laurel Cherry Ave Winter Garden, FL 34787

8007 Rail Street Winter Garden, FL 34787

Yes, on the National Level, there is a slow down in construction and in many states a drop in sales and a plateauing in prices.

Many of these places have seen taxes across the board skyrocket while their incomes while going up for the first time in 10 years, are not outpacing the taxation. Lets also talk about the weather, Im writing this report in the first week of January, we experience 85 degree days this week. Every home in Winter Garden comes with snow removal for life at no cost and NO state income tax (we dodge that bullet in November !).

Even with the almost 1% jump in interest rates throughout the course of 2018, homes are still selling. Families are flocking to Winter Garden. It is by far the most desirable and still affordable area in Central Florida. Lets also consider we have the States largest employer, Disney, in our back yard and tourist tax collected last month was the highest on record.

I say all of this because you need to understand some (not all ) of the factors that go into Ron the Realtors predictions. So here it is.
2019 average sale price will pull back from the robust boom of 2018 of 8-9% that was experienced. Winter Garden will outperform the national and even the local markets yet again, the demand is strong. We will see a 4.5% increase in average sale price and a 5-5.5% increase in median price. Yes the median will outperform the average, mark my words. Affordable housing in the area is becoming harder and harder to acquire… anyone that understands medians and why they are used for a basis point will understand my bold yet accurate prediction. With this said we should see an average sale price land close to $400,000 in 2019 and $430,000 for single-family statistics. 

This is all phenomenal news, even though it is almost half of what was predicted, with insane accuracy last year. We have a higher price point now so even with lower % predictions, each % carries just a little more weight. I do predict more investor purchases in the area, with the uncertainty in the stock market I think investors will start to be open minded to smaller growth predictions and returns for the certainty of a long term investment in an extremely desirable area. The only proven way to financial independence throughout our nation’s history is amassing of real estate with long term hold strategy. In uncertain times, it rings even closer to fact carved in stone.

BIG NEWS

I started a new website and facebook page several months ago to give back to the area residents. I noticed long ago there was no place to go to obtain information on all the events and news going on in this amazing city.