here is 969 Billion dollars of waste planned for 2012 that we know about….

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/get-a-load-of-all-these-programs-the-feds-are-unofficially-funding-this-year/

THis is truly the definition of insanity.

this article he just wrote is almost word for word what I have been writing about for the last year plus !

it is a great read…….great minds think a like they say !

Just the facts

Median Sales Price  $118,000 ($105,000 12/10)

2011 Median Sales price culmative $109,900, ($108,500 2010)

Median sales price for “normal sales” $159,900

Median sales price for Short Sales $105,000

Median sales price for bank owned REO $80,000

NATIONAL MEDIAN sales price $164,200

Homes Sold thru ORRA december 2011  2,125 down 14% from 2,467 for 2010

TOTAL solds for 2011- 34,670   (35,140 for 2010)

TOTAL SOLDS Nationally for Nov 4.42 MILLION  up from 3.94 M 11/10

Orange county 1,359 solds in december , 15% less than 12/10 -1,598 17,965 all of 2011, 18,894 in 2010

For Orlando solds of normal sales increased 12% from 2010

sold short sales increased 21%

REO closed sales declined 27%

PENDING SALES 8,095 SHORT SALES MAKE UP 75% of this total !!!

Average days on the market 103 days

Homes sold for 92.4% of asking price

Current Orlando Inventory is down 35% from 2010, 4.58 month supply of housing at current pace

National inventory down 5.8% with 2.58 MILLION active listings. 7 month supply

Average interest rate for december 3.99% !!!

Nationally 28% of all closed sales were all cash

Current consumer inflation is just above 3%

Contract failures nationally still at record level of 33%

NATIONAL REVISED CLOSED SALES NUMBERS JUST RELEASED:

2010- 4,190,000  this was a correction from first released 4,908,000…when they double counted numerous sales at a national level.

FORECLOSURE NUMBERS:

6,167,000 households have missed at least one payment

This is down 7.7% from 2010 numbers

2,066,000 of the total above are in actual foreclsoure

1,792,000 of the remainder are at least 90 days delinquent

DS NEWS DELINQUENCY DATA

Here are links to many different data research sources, covering anything and everything regarding Orlando real estate data… you will not find a more comprised list anywhere.

ORRA Market Report

Year end Market Pulse

MEDIAN SALES PRICE FOR ENTIRE COUNTRY BY MAJOR CITY

Existing homes sales across the country by major city

NAR November exisitng home sales report

Orlando Housing Trends

MSA 8 Year History

Orlando 8 year history

Orlando by actives

Orlando MSA by County

Orlando Recap

Orlando sales by Price

Orlando sales by zipcode

Sales by County

2011 Recap and Rons Predictions of where we are going in 2012

Like I eluded to in the opening sentence, 2011 was dominated by short sales and will continue thru 2012. I have mentioned for last 18 months that the reo machine was halted by a last ditch effort by the democratic controlled congress in 2010.A month before the landslide crushing they received. Halting foreclosures in their tracks. We are still feeling this impact today.

I have also called the bottom of the market was December of 2010, I called it in October of 2010 and then confirmed it in Feb of 2011 with fact based data… Kiplinger now agrees…

http://realestate.msn.com/finally-a-bottom-for-home-prices

With foreclosures hovering around 2 years to facilitate on average, numerous underwater homeowners are turning to short selling their homes. With the lenders starting to catch on to the fact that a short sale nets them more cash, short sales are starting to commence…while still a brutal exercise in patience, they are picking up.

Foreclosures as a whole were down significantly in December , in fact at a 49 month low…with 205,024 filings in december. This article is a year and a half late but confirms what I have been saying since 2010….

http://realestate.msn.com/foreclosures-plunge-to-lowest-level-since-2007

Buyers are also more educated than they were 12 months ago. A year ago 20% of my day was educating buyers on what a short sale actually is. Now buyers are requesting this type of home sale from first contact.

The issue is and continues to be that “normal” sales make up only a fraction of our current market. whether its REO or short sales as the dominate factor, the fact is they are both versions of distressed sales keeping the housing market below what a normal seller can afford to sell for.

When everyone on the block sells for less than what was owed, it forces one of 2 things from the neighbors still on the street. They either stay in their homes or if they are in a position where they have to sell. If they sell they too become a short sale or bring the difference to the closing table. In the current economic times few have the abiltiy to cut that sizeable check.

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/21/9614305-as-home-prices-fall-more-borrowers-walk-away

Let me discuss what is really happening in our market place…. there is NOTHING to buy. PERIOD. whenever a listing hits the market that is priced within the current market regardless of condition or location, if it priced correctly… there are MULTIPLE offers on that property in less than 72 hrs.

Folks, this is the same frenzy I have seen that started the peek of the market in 2005 and 2006, the media didnt start reporting on it in their headlines until end of 2006-2007, then it was too late.

I have discussed the perfect storm of our market place numerous times over the last 12 newsletters, all of which has been coming to fruition. So to be brief and to the point we have almost a non existant new home construction market, we have shadow inventory at record highs and we have an economy that is currently locking people in their existing homes… many baby boomers living with their adult children, many that want to retire but stayed on their current jobs to recapture what they lost in stocks. Couple this with lowest interest rates ever and our Florida climate… the perfect storm.

Prices are going to rise this year. they already are. The artificially managed inventory shortage is now taken hold as I predicted and prices have stablized to the point where it is like sharks in the water.

SW Orlando is and always will be the jewel of the city, comprised of the most expensive homes in central florida, highest per household salaries and the fact the mouse, univeral and shamu are in the back yard.

SE Orlando is ready to explode as well with the new medical facilities and massive development in the area. High salary jobs are coming in dialy. Housing has yet to catch up, this is a perfect place to invest. the only negatives to this area is the air traffic (3rd busiest airport in the country) and the fact there is so much vacant land to build and expand.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/topic/os-medical-city-lake-nona-20120107-53,0,2858254.story

 Our international market is unique in every way from the rest of the country. I see a price jump throughout the year ending at 15-25% increase by december of 2012.  I know that this will be price range and location driven as Orlando has so many different pockets and is so spread out.

Higher priced market will continue to decline (750-1.9 M) by as much as 10-15% more.

The highest end of the market, those with cash are spending it (over 2 million price tag). In fact 239 homes sold with an asking price of 2 million or more…. here is the complete list with 12 homes selling for above $5,000,000 ! topping out at 12.5 million, and that was 5 million off the asking price !

http://mfr.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=1377879605&s=MFR&t=MFR

The market that is thriving and can not be more competitive is 100-400k and more specifically 100-250k price range. Investors world wide are buying anything that hits the market. With this type of frenzy you will need to know where to buy and where not to, that is where I come in.

Inventory is going to increase through the 1st and into the 2nd quarter but the lenders will ensure they do not outpace demand. whether the inventory shortage was a coincidental accident or a maniacle devious plan coming to fruition, the fact is that prices are going up even while many are losing their homes. This is not the case nationally… just in Central Florida area. If you are dealing with rochester or detroit, you are in a mess with no way to get out (kodak just filed BK and detroit has turned into a war zone). Central Florida is the best area, it will come out in the next few years proving again wht I am tellign you now.

Bottom line, demand is at feverish levels and inventory is at historic lows… prices are rising and will conitnue to do so for several years to come at a steady pace with a few unique spikes in certain areas. Knowing these areas is what makes my investors wealthy and myself in the top 50 Realtors in the city and number one agent for the biggerst remax office in Orlando.

I want to shoe horn this in here since I do not have really a set place to put this article… it is Fox Businesses 12 important tips for real estate in 2012 and worth a quick glance at least…enjoy. But tip 13 is dont do anything until you call Ron the Realtor !

BUYERS

If 2012 is the year to buy your new home congratulations, you are getting in at peek time to secure amazing pricing and interest rates. The issue will be fierce competition as I mentioned in the section above so you need to allow time.

You also need to be prepared to offer more than asking price if a home is priced to attract multiple offers. Doing your home work ahead of time is key. This is why my clients are the most educated in the market. www.RontheRealtor.com offers a one stop place for proeprty research second to none.

Being loan approved is essential. As a owner occupant buyer you have one advantage over the investor pool of cash buyers… homesteps and homepath properties are REO FHA loans that the government has foreclosed on. These programs allow owner occupants 15 days head start on offers before they enterain investor offers. These properties are also FHA approved and many have fresh paint , carpet and appliances. they also come with a 2 year warranty.

These programs give you the opportunity to buy at REO cash investor prices with a 3.5 % down loan and they allow up to 3% for closing costs !!

Since the inventory is so low and homes are sold within days, i have no homes right this minute to provide as an example list. Call me and we can set you up with a search to never miss another opportunity.

INVESTORS

2012 is the year of the investor. I believe that the first 2 quarters of 2012 will make my clients their retirement accounts.

Buying for a 3-5 year hold and generating 8-12% monthly returns while sitting back and waiting for a 50-75% return on sale appreciation is what my investors are going to realize. I do not know of anywhere in any market that can offer these types of ROI.

The market is more competitive than I have ever seen, my numerous investors from last year can already confirm that they got in at the right time… many already experiencing 20-65% returns on property value…

The areas I have purchased in also rent quickly and for top dollar,

I have experienced and professional property management company handling all of my international buyers and they have all exceeded their benchmarks to this point.

Here are some great buys for lower end investments

RTR investor List

With SE Orlando beginnning to pop here are the best buys under 175k

RTR SE Orlando List

If you are an avid reader of my blog you know the hottest area is single family 125-350k, renting strong and prime for huge returns. more importantly you can achieve a winning bid with financing, with 25% down programs out there for FOREIGN NATIONALS and 10-20% down for U.S. citizens, what a way to LEVERAGE your money for the maximum return. What other markets can you predict the bottom on pretty accuratelty , none unless they hit zero. Real estate moves much slower than stocks or commodities so the bottom has already been addressed and if it dips 5-10% on some fluke, it will easily bounce back with time.

This is the ideal time to use this strategy, we did it in 2002-2004 and I made investors millions. We have the same recipe in our midst now…dont miss out again. You can lock down a rental property for under 25k in cash out lay….again now is the time,

Here are the best buys currently for this purpose, all sought after communities all below value and ready to rent. Strong locations and schoiol districts.

http://mfr.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=1527127171&s=MFR&t=MFR

If you want the up to the second (literally) market opprtunities you need to call me and get on my investor hot list.

SELLERS

For those of my clients that need to sell but owe more than what their home is worth, I have one of the most successful short sale teams in the country, I only failed on 1 short sale all of 2011 and it was due to the bank wanting 25% more than what the home was worth.

I am achieving NO DEFICIENCY letters before signing at the closing table… my clients close without looking over there shoulders for 5 years…. Aslo numerous sellers of mine are achieving $3,000 PLUS at closing for moving expenses when they qualify !

All of this at no cost to you. If you know anyone that needs this service have them call me. I always get results.

For my sellers that are not underwater you are in a catch 22. If you sell you could be leaving money on the table but to sit it out and wait for increasing prices which are definitely happening, you are leaving more money oin the table on your next purchase. Typically families sell to gain a larger home, the larger homes are also appreciating… if it was a stable apples for apples appreciation and your 200k home goes up 10% you get another 20k that is awesome….. but the 350k home that you are eyeing is now going to cost you 35k more to get it.

The advantage of selling now is that buyers are fighting over housing… I can obtain above market pricing and very strong terms for you. terms where you are confident of the closing.. large downpayments, even lease backs while you have your proceeds and shop for the new home… it goes on and on.

I NEED HOME TO SELL.. PERIOD. if you or someone you know needs to sell their home call me today. You will be amazed at what I can accomplish for you.

Rons Rant…

This is the area of my newsletter that I go off real estate topic and just cover topics that interest me, this month I have to make up for not exposing flaws by our current administration so there is a lot this month.

First topic …I have always been privy to Obamas plan to destroy this country, for anyone else that still is in doubt (except those who live solely off government subsidies, I know why you vote for this joke)… the declining of the Keystone Oil Pipeline should be the final nail to wake you up. Costing us millions in tax revenue, american jobs and a push for energy dependency. The man and his pack of cronies cant get out of the white house fast enough.

One more example…. instead of tightening our borders and securing our airports/ports… Obama yesterday made it as easy to get in our country as it was in 2006 to get a loan… he just announced a fast track for anyone that wants to come here, eliminating what was already a pretty lax visa proces. Now it will take longer to get on space mountain than to get into the U.S. Looks like the democrats really need more illegal voters in the next 10 months. To top it off these crooks in power are calling this an improvement…. you cant make this shit up folks…

http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/article/2012/01/20120119154622eiznekcam3.863162e-02.html#axzz1k1GLlv9I

Obamas trip yesterday to Disney Land cost the tax Payers $110,000,000 for a 23 minute on how to generate money for Florida… on the 6 o clock news 2 longwood schools are set to close to non funding. That $100,000,000 could have been used to save those schools and build 2 more?

I am tired of this Administration living like rulers instead of public servants… while everyone else is struggling to make ends meet due to their policies. The consistant process of dismantling small business and increasing tax burdens while spending endlessly jsut does not stop. 40,000 new laws came into effect 20 days ago… do we really need 40,000 new laws? Big Goverment is big problems.

The government wastes trillions of dollars and thank God Obamas request last week for 1.5 More TRILLION was declined. All of a sudden they wanted to get responsible with paying for the whopping 2 month income tax break extension… how did these jackasses decide to pay for this 2 month extension since they couldnt get it resolved… I know you guessed cutting foreign aid to China or Saudi Arabia but you would be wrong. I know you next thought maybe they would just divert some money from the presidents 300 million dollar travel fund… nope.

They decided to increase the costs of a 30 year FHA loan to first time buyers to pay for their incompetence. Honestly you cant write a more outlandish comedy than what this administration is actually doing. You can read the entire break down of this ingenious decision on my last post.

It is not just Obama it is his entire administration… TODAY in fact , our nations federal prosecutor Patrick Cunningham i going to plead the 5th on the stand when questioned by the court for his involvement…. the 5th wtf?

http://www.wusa9.com/news/article/185946/381/Panel-Prosecutor-Intends-To-Plead-The-5th-In-Fast-And-Furious-Probe

This gun smuggling ring is greater than any organized crime could ever do… headed by our nations biggest disaster Eric Holder.Obamas right hand man. the one suing Arizona, South Carolina and Alabama currently.Mr Holder is the most corrupt person besides Obama in office. He went so low as to say he was being questioned on fast and furious because he is black.. what a joke. I am sure you know that his law firm represents numerous Guatanamo Bay Prisoners against the U.S…. THIS IS THE OUR ATTORNEY GENERAL, again I cant make this stuff up.

http://thetruthtracker.wordpress.com/2009/01/25/club-gitmo-and-eric-holders-law-firm/

I can honestly go on and on but it is too depressing..

On the world stage Europes oil embargo on Iran starts tomorrow. This only strengthens Irans alliance to Russia and China. Since Obama is financing Brazils own off shore oil drilling with our tax payer dollars while putting tens of thousand out of work along our own coast for the banning of offshore drilling at home.

Russia has already threatened to nuke our missle sites  in Europe if we go after Iran. China has an army of over 2 million troops and we have just released satellite images of yet another military device they have duplicated thru theft… their new aircraft carrier. Along with their new stealth bombers and stealth helicopter, there spies are feeding them all our engineering secrets just like they stole GE’s secrets for electronics in the past.

Keep cutting our military and selling all our equipment to Saudi Arabia for pennies on the dollar. What are we doing in Washington… 545 idiots are destroying our country and filling their pockets during the entire debaucle.

Look forward to the 2012 election, while I am not in love with any of our GOP candidates… in fact, I am really disappointed in the elitest way our candidates are selected. I am not convinced that the 4 remaining individuals are the best our country has to offer. All I am convinced of is the media will try and destroy anyone that goes up against their golden mesiah.

With that said RTR is endorsing Newt for president. He will never need a teleprompter and he can debate the pants off Obama anytime anywhere.

Hope he wins it… Romney is obama lite.

Paul has some great ideas but goes sideways on many others.

Anyone of the 4 is better than what we got now.

On a positive note Orlando is tied for 7th in the nation for disaster preparedness. Trying to find other good news stories but I only find disappointment and corruption around every turn,

Maybe thats why gun sales are at the highest levels in American history (is it coincidence that homocides fell off top list of causes of death in America same year, dont think so) .

Maybe it is due to the fact that all of Obama’s 3 , yes count them 3 supreme court justice appointees, wish to destroy the 2nd ammendment, Sotomeyer has said it since day one in fact. If Obama is president a second term he may have as many as 2 more appointees, this is the most dangerous impact of his plan, the legacy he will leave behind that will FUNDAMENTALLY change our country thru our justice system for many years to come.. No president in our history has ever appointed more supreme court justices since George Washington ! again you cant make this stuff up !

ACCOMPLISHMENTS

2011 was another solid year for RTR and his team.

FINISHED number 48 out of 32,076 active ORRA board members for total volume closed !! finishing in the top 50 yet another year.

Named REMAX Properties SW #1 sales team for 2011 ( 6 th year in a row )

Named to Orlando Magazines hot 100 in real estate (8th year in a row)

Earned Zagats 5 star in customer service (10th year in a row)

Earned FIVE STAR AWARD   (3rd year)

plus many other awards and accolodaes that come with these types of credentials.

I really want to thank  my team that works day in and out for all our clients, I want to thank my 3 kids who deal with Daddy on the phone all day and night, missing alot of their events, my wife for dealing with my rants…

and most importantly, I want to thank all my clients, past and present. Without you, I am nowhere. I am so blessed to have so many amazing people I have helped that send me countless referrals. I am only successful because each and every one of you is a billboard for my business. Giving my name as a referral with the confidence that your friend is going to thank you sincerely for the recommendation the next time you see them is the driving force of my business.

Customer service is and always has been my number one business model, I only wish the rest of America conducted business with the same emphasis… it is a dying art… the art of caring for your client and doing what is best for their family. I think I am have mastered this art like Picasso.

Keep the referrals coming… I am always here to give honest , no B.S. advice.

Thank you from  he bottom of my heart. 2012 is the year of the investor so lets get those college tuitions and retirement accounts paid for ! No time better than right now to secure your financial future, let me show you how.

Here’s what’s happening and what it means to home loan rates:

First, what exactly is the “g-fee”? The guarantee fee or “g-fee” is an amount charged by mortgage-backed securities (MBS) providers, like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, to help protect against credit-related losses in the overall mortgage portfolio. In other words, it acts a lot like insurance and helps lower the overall risk…which means that home loans can be offered at terrific interest rates to borrowers that have good – but not perfect – credit.

What is happening and why? To put it bluntly, the passage of the payroll tax cut extension is being funded via a mandate to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase their guarantee fees or “g-fee’s” by at least 10 basis points on the rate. So rather than giving a par rate of 4.00%, for example, the par rate is now increased by at least 10 basis points, or approximately 4.10%. But since home loan rates are priced and offered in .125% increments, this will most likely impact the consumer by .125% in rate. The political logic behind passing on the cost of the payroll tax cut extension in this way is sketchy at best, and the Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that the increase will ultimately pay for about $35.7 Billion of the cost of the payroll tax extension – on the backs of homebuyers and refinancers.

Why is there confusion about the 10bps? Two reasons: First, the wording states that g-fees must be increased by at least 10 basis points…which means that’s the minimum, not the maximum…so it’s not impossible that g-fees could be increased by more than 10 basis points. Second, the way they described the 10bp increase is somewhat confusing, as both rates and points are described in basis points. The 10bp hit is to the rate side, not the point side…so let’s break it down simply and think about it.

A good rule of thumb used to be (and sometimes still is) that in order to buy down a par rate by .125% in rate, it would generally cost about 50 basis points in points (or $500 on a $100,000 loan). So it stands to reason that buying down the rate by .10% might cost 40 basis points…so the 10bp g-fee hit translates into about 40 bps that we’d see on our rate sheet. But as we all know far too well…the amount required to cover .10% in rate will most certainly vary by the investor, the day or the hour, and let’s face it…perhaps by which way the wind is blowing. That makes the hit a little unpredictable at best, which leads some people to worry about wild variations or worst-case scenarios.

What exactly is the impact of the rate increase? For example, for a $200,000 home loan, the increased g-fee (assuming an approximate rate hit of .125% in rate) would equate to $250 more per year in interest, or $7,500 more over 30 years. Someone buying or refinancing a home can certainly choose to buy down the cost with cash up front – but most folks will not do this.

Who will this impact? The change will impact all new borrowers of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans. The bill will also impact Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans by increasing the annual mortgage insurance premium that borrowers pay by one-tenth of a percent.

When will it start? Officially, the increase to guarantee fees will begin on April 1, 2012. However, the increase is already starting to be seen in rate sheets right now, since home loans being originated now will likely not be closed, pooled and securitized until April… and therefore will need the increased g-fee priced in earlier.

How long will this be in effect? The increase will be effective through October 1, 2021.

The bottom line is that like it or not, the g-fees are going up…and this will impact homebuyers looking to obtain a home loan through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA.

the medical facilities are almost in palce, the VA hospital will open this year…. new home construction is not ready to keep up with demand so we will se a sharp rise in values quickly. In and out or sit and hold, either way works here.

here is a great update from our local newspaper compelte with great video:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/health/os-medical-city-lake-nona-20120107,0,5417688.story

No better way to make money than in real estate, the key is knowing where to buy. Now you know ! call me now 407 592 7653.

http://realestate.msn.com/blogs/listed-loans.aspx?post=0d265a89-d5ee-4a8a-bb35-a2d624bc5a21&from=en-us_msnhp

Just the Facts

Here is the breakdown of Novembers numbers, all numbers reflect 11/11 any numbers in ( ) reflect 11/10:

Median sales Price… held steady at $115,000

Sales Prices are up 21% since January !

Median of Normal Sales $148,000, 40% of all transactions in Nov

Median Sales Price of Short sales $106,000, 37% of all sales in Nov

Median Sales Price for REO $81,999, 23% of all sales in Nov

Closed sales  1,950 (1,936)

Pending Sales 8,909 *73 % of all pending sales are SHORT SALES .

New contracts 2,887 (3,243)

Average Interest rate- Record Low 4.1 %

Days on the market 99 days (96)

5.2 month supply at current levels

Properties achieved 94.74% of sales price ( 94.13%)

 National numbers….. not released as of yet, still have same numbers as last month, refer to last months newsletter if interested. I will post when they are released. I am sure the release of incorrect data is reason for delays. NAR double counted certain fields when they should have only been counted once….heres the story if you have not heard…

 http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/story/2011-12-12/Home-sales-revision/51838420/1

 FORECLOSURE NUMBERS:

6,260,000 homes in default in 11/11

1,809,000 90 days or more late  (1,759,000 in oct)

2,279,000 30-89 days late   (2,329,000 in oct)

8.15% of all mortages nationwide in default

American household mortgages are currently at 9.88 TRILLION DOLLARS in mortgage balances owed !

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/mortgage-delinquencies-on-rise-as-loans-languish-in-pipeline-2011-12-19

Important data links , this is the most comprehensive list of accurate and up to date housing data you can find in one place:

Market Pulse 

Housing trends summary

MSA 8 Year History

Orlando 8 Year History

Orlando actives by price

Orlando MSA by County

Orlando Recap

Orlando sales by price

Orlando sales by zip code

Sales volume by county

Weekly housing reports

UCF forcast for the nation Dec 2011

and a gift from me to you on Christmas…

THIS IS REALLY GREAT: demographics breakdown of every area in central florida in one place:

http://www.orlandoedc.com/Data-Center/demographicdetail.shtml#orange

Census Facts

Rons Market Summary/ Predictions.

 Record low inventory, the likes we have not seen since the times that caused the real estate bubble to inflate, historically low interest rates and a foreclosure machine halted to its knees have created a market unlike one we have ever been in.

We have 2.8-4 million homes in shadow inventory, another 6 million plus 30 dyas or more in default , yet we have no homes to buy with immense global buyer demand.

I have discussed all of these factors individually in great depth in my previous newsletters, this has developed such an interesting market, especially on the local level. Orlando is where I sell every day, I can not really comment on what is happening in Utah or North Dakota, but honestly I have no interest in those markets.

What I am interested in, and what I have great knowledge in, is the market in my backyard, the one I have successfully worked for over 12 years. Central Florida is facing some of the same issues the nation is facing but Central Florida has unfair advantages to the rest of the country that will allow it to surpass all others in this recovery.

I know what the mainstream media reports, I know their headlines… they are very predicatable and they are very late on what they call breaking news. I recall in 2006-2007 the nightly news was covering the real estate boom daily and how investors were snatching up homes… funny thing is that I was buying up homes for investors 2003-2005. We were selling them in 2007.

Same delays in reporting and misunderstanding of the market is happening this time around. The sky is far from falling, what the media is reporting now should have been the headlines in 2007. In central florida there is a mini boom going on.

Ask anyone trying to buy a home right now in  Central Florida. There are 4-15 offers on any listing, priced correctly. There are those sellers that can not afford to compete with the actual market prices and they sit and collect dust.

The appraisal issues I have been discussing all year are still the most pressing drag on our recovery. In fact a  historical high 33% OF all CONTRACTS HAVE FAILED TO CLOSE IN 2011. Up from 8% in 2010. The majority of these failures is low appraisals.

As evidence of all the short sales active and pending (over 70% of all pendings in Orlando MLS), sellers can not sell and break even on their homes in most cases.

The foreclosure halting caused by the democratic controlled congress in Oct of 2010 , sighting robo signing and fraud , stopped the already sluggish process of foreclosure to a halt. Now at over 670 days to foreclose in Orange County ! Of course there are some that were not foreclosed properly, when you are dealing with millions of defaulting homes this is bound to happen.The majority of foreclosed homes are foreclosed on correctly due to a default of payments by the borrower. 

I want to avoid getting sidetracked, this has all been discussed throughout the year in my blog, just trying to lay basis for my predictions and market analysis for the benefit of the newly added readers which has been increasing by over 50 a month steadily (thanks to all for sharing my newsletter with family and friends) !

The banks are now poised to start liquidating their books. Starting in the first quarter we will see a GRADUAL uptick in inventory. I expect an increase in new inventory every month of 28-37%. Just enough to keep the inventory at under a 6 month supply.

The governments knee jerk reaction to lowering FHA loan limits 2 months ago has already been rescinded and is now immediately back up to old levels, which in Orange county is a loan max of $353,720.  I wish they would have raised it to 450k personally.

As long as the government stops manipulating our free market and changing tax codes, loan requirements and banking policy ..2012 will be a fantastic year for buyers and sellers.

I predict across the board a 10-14% increase in median sales price.In many pockets and in lower price ranges I see a much larger rise in pricing, I expect in many areas I concentrate on to experience 20-35% increase in values over the course of 2012.

We will see pricing flat $500-1,000,000. There just simply are not enough buyers or enough loan programs to support the amount of inventory in this price range. Above a million already had it’s hit and buyers in this price range are still plentiful and are flocking to the State of Florida due to its tax shelter of homestead exemption and of course the amazing weather. Rich get richer, isnt that what they say?

Rental rates will continue to rise, lower price range housing in SW Orlando will see large increases in prices as the year continues. As many of the distressed properties are purged and HOA budgets of multifamily communities get back into the black, more of these types of communities will have financing again… no longer will they be cash only investments. I have been harping on this true life fact for 2 years…. the time is coming where many communities have had a majority “turn over” , hoa dues are back to being paid.

Financing being available will immediately drive the prices up, allowing the cash buyers to liquidate for profits in the coming year or hold for longer term goals and appreciation.

With many still losing their homes every month, these families still need a place to live…. I have stresed many times that the 200-400k single family home market is not just for owner occupied buyers… this is where investors will make a killing in their portfolios.

Strong tenant demand in this price range, many with very bad credit but cash in their pockets. They  just foreclosed on a 650k home they qualified for but with it being worth 400k they let it go. They still have the funds to maintain the lifestyle in many cases. (Strategic Default).. right or wrong this is a sector that exists and to ignore it is to leave opportunities at the door.

These tenants are looking for lease options, contract for deeds, wanting to establish stability for their families in these unparalleled times. Allowing my investors to obtain higher interest rates, monthly returns and locking down future appreciation immediately. TRY DOING THIS WITH A STOCK OR MUTUAL FUND.

I dont mean to harp on the investments but I have NEVER seen a time to strike better in my lifetime than right now, all the pieces are in play, I see checkmate 7 moves ahead and there is nothing the opponent can do to avoid it. The general public is playing 1, 2 moves ahead tops.

As for my selling clients…. the market is the market. It is tight and educated. Pricing your home well will allow you to pick your terms, even if they are unorthodox. I am achieving above appraised value on many of my listings and doing so in days on the market due to the high demand and low inventory.

The longer you wait the more REO comparables you will be dealing with… I have yet to see an REO sale help a communities values. There are many on the horizon, the best defense against it is to strike when the buyers have limited choices. In a normal market I try to avoid lisitng homes in the 1st quarter, knowing summer is traditional buying season. this market is not normal, it is driven by government policy and a misinformed media machine.

I achieve results for everyone of my clients because I apply common sense to the deep knowledge I have of my market. Now is the time to test the boundaries of pricing. I have negotiated appraisal waivers, early closings with lease backs for the sellers, huge escrow deposits (up to 100% of the offering price) and many more terms that a seller has not seen in 5 years.

For my clients upside down, I have achieved 90% success rate on my short sale lisitngs in 2011 ! Yes 90%. More importantly my short sale team of professionals has obtained deficiency waivers in the majority of the approvals. Ones that did not were investment properties, many of which we still succeeded in obtaining. The 10% of failures were based on bad appraisals by the lender holding the assets. Bad advice from part time realtors doing discount appraisals called BPOs (broker price opinions).

Either way,my results crush the 33%  failure of contracts in the nation. The main thing is that my sellers have closed, avoided being sued and have written approval letters protecting them from future lawsuits.

Many short sale sellers do not have this luxury, in fact I get at least a call a week from a client asking advice for a friend or family member from another state or ones that went at it alone and did not use my service. The stories I have heard are saddening and more importantly very costly to the person involved,

All over the board, sorry alot to cover.

Bottom line… inventory will increase slowly to keep prices stable and rising. lower end prices will go up more significantly, rental rates will rise and we will be on track towards a solid recovery in Central Florida. Most importantly… now is the time to buy in Central Florida. Prices hit bottom last December as I predicted they would last September.

Investors

I said most of what I had to say in the predictions section because I truly believe this is the best and last year for years to come to achieve results that are almost guaranteed to exceed expectations for any savy investor. I feel prices will creep up just enough by end of the year to make home runs turn into doubles and singles.

I truly believe now is the time, prices will continue to rise but in the areas I specialize in I am predicting 20-35% jump in prices by summers end.  They will continue to rise after that but to get in now is the key to maximum returns.

Herea re some of the best buys in the area, something for every price range. All of these have offers on them or will by the end of the week…..

 Rons Investor List

As always, call me if youa re serious about investing. I can not see how anyone with capital in this propped up stock market would not find the real estate opportunities of Central Florida as a very sexy alternative.

As the markets improve nationwide and the unemployment rate drops (whenever that is) , baby boomers will be flocking to Florida. This is jsut one facet of the bueyr pool, jsut one and it is a fact they have been delayed due to loss of retirement income, loss of property values and in many cases dead beat kids living at their homes that should be on their own already.

It is 85 degrees and sunny 5 days before Christmas

No State income tax

Homestead exemption allows the protection of massive amounts of cash in this state.

Congress is working on a bill as we speak to allow PERMANENT VISAS for foreign nationals that invest 500k in United States real estate !!! What do you think this is going to do to property values in orlando if/when it passes !

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203752604576641421449460968.html

http://nvcatoday.nvca.org/index.php/policy-developments-april-2011/senate-introduces-start-up-visa-bill.html

Call me today to discuss what is involved with investing in this current market and what to expect. Look forward to helping you secure your families future, like I have for many of my current and past clients.

Rons Rant

I am not going to do the typical Rons Rant this month. I strive to bring to light manipulation, inaccuracies  and topics no one probably has ever heard about.. some controversial …some just really cool. My rants are very opinionated and very much what I believe is important. Many would never state what I state in this section of a real estate blog. Many would consider it business suicide. I have found it to be the complete opposite, considering the fact I have earned yet again the number 1 sales team of the highest producing sales office in Orlando and top 50 in the entire MLS for yet another year, plus many other awards that come with those big accolades.

 As for the controversial topics, I strongly believe my perspective is extremly accurate, based on facts and the application of common sense. So do many of my readers and clients. I hope you have found the topics I have chosen to cover enlightening and informative thoroughtout this year.

The reason for my success is that  I truly have my clients best interest at heart on every transaction I am involved in. I consider every client as important as another.  Customer service and accountability are the driving forces of my business model and everyday activities. As a small business entreprenuer customer service is the key to success opinion.

The reason the United States is in the mess we are in now is the lack of customer service and accountability. Well there are many other reasons I have discussed in this Rons Rant section in previous months (political correctness comes to mind), but I truly believe that customer service is a forgotten art.

Accountability is non existant.

The crushing of the small business in America has led to a faceless machine providing goods and services. No longer is it a neighborhood owned shop where Mr Jones worked and lived in the community he did business in.

We have a 10 year low this year in small business loans and business creation. This all started in 2008. Any correlation?

http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/stories/2011/dec/14/small-business-lending/

Customer service is the key to small business. Without small business, customer service is compromised. This is what we are experiencing in our coutnry today.

This is the main reason we have the unemplyment rates the way we do. Well this and our Presidents attack on domestic energy.

Ok , Im done… could not help it. I avoided the troop pull out, the pipeline debaucle, the income tax theatrics, the 4 million dollar Obama christmas vacation and the ufo caught on national TV…!

Well heres the UFO they deny is a UFO

they estimate 2 billion planets in Milky Way Galaxy alone similar to our planet

Just saying….?

Sorry Im really done, really. Thought both those last links were fascinating and really eye opening after I saw them the first time.

Summary

2011 was a trying year for so many, including myself. I am so blessed that my family is healthy, my children impress me every day. I have so many wonderful clients that I have come to know and work for that have allowed me to have a life that I am so fortunate to have.

I look forward to 2012, look forward to new clients , helping past ones and helping many avoid pitfalls in this market.

Thank you from my family to yours for allowing me to be apart of your life. Thank you as well for always recommending me to your loved ones when it is time for their real estate needs. This is the main reason I am who I am. Your referrals are the reason for my success. You can always rest assured that your referred loved one is treated with the greatest level of customer service I can give every day.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and yours.

 God Bless our troops overseas and the families they have left behind.

 Please forward this newsletter to anyone you know, I am trying to obtain 5,000 monthy readers by end of 1st quarter, I am very close. With your help I know I can achieve it.

appraisers do not give enough adjustments for well kept and cared for homes versus the foreclosure distressed sale on the block…

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2011/12/12/flawed-appraisals-hurting-home-sales-slowing-housing-recovery/

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/u-s-debt-has-increased-48994-per-second-since-obama-took-office/