Summer buying season has come to a close, all I can say is I wish there were more homes to buy !
As predicted last month, the media would be hitting on all cylinders regarding 2 apparently great trends in the market. Decrease in foreclosures and increase in median sales price. Both of which I explained last month in great detail were headlines to dismiss as amazing news and to be looked at in this way…
The increase in median sales price… summer months always show an increase in median sales price from the slower winter buying season due to more owner occupant purchases. The good news is the 7% increase from last july to this july…not the 23% from Jan to july.
the decrease in foreclosures…. been beating this one like a dead horse for over 9 months. The Robo signing circus created by the Democrats before their demise in the 2010 elections.
Just the Facts:
Every month I lay out the most important and accurate data impacting our local Orlando Market, supplying links to compiled data and news articles from industry publications.
Median Sales Price in Orlando $117,000 (up 23.3% since 1/11) Up 7.64% from July 2010′s $108.700… which is the relevant story here. Not the increase from winter to summer.
2,147 closed transactions in july, 14.67% less than 7/10
“Normal Sales” increased market share for 6th straight month to 42%, with a 16% increase compared to 7/10.
Current Inventory 10,349 (down 37% from 7/10 !, single family is down 33% and condo inventory is down 53%)
4.82 month supply at current pace
REO/Bank Owned closed sales dropped 49% compared to 7/10, median sales price is $80,000, $72,000 in 7/10
Short sales closed increased almost 17% compared to 7/10, median sales price currently $98,000
9,869 current pending sales ….19,133 pending in July 2010
101 average days on market, 84 in 2010
Hoems sold for a consistant 95% of asking price
Interest rate averaged 4.53 %
Here are some great links to important / relevant data
Multi media breakdown of stats
The best publication put out on Orlando market data tracking:
MARKET PULSE
housing trends summary
MSA 8 Year history
Orlando 8 year history
Orlando actives by price
Orlando sales by price
Orlando recap
Orlando sales by zip code
National foreclosure update
While every market is different they are all affected at some level by the national stage, I think it is important to understand and track the REAL facts regarding foreclosures. Not just the stories written my journalists that have never handled a real estate transaction, looking for the next sensational head line.
6,538,000 homes in default as of last tuesday in the coutnry, this means at least 30 days late.
thats up 190,000 over last 2 months !
In June, LPS’ tally of loans at least 30 days delinquent or in foreclosure was 6,452,000. In May it was 6,350,000.
LPS says the national delinquency rate — loans that are at least 30 days past due but not yet in foreclosure – rose to 8.34 percent as of the end of July. That’s up 2.4 percent from June but down 10.4 percent from July 2010.
Of the 6,538,000 mortgages going unpaid in July, LPS says 2,156,000 were in the process of foreclosure.
The remaining 4,382,000 were 30 or more days past due but the lender had not yet initiated foreclosures. Of these, 1,899,000 were 90-plus days delinquent.
Last month, foreclosure filings – including default notices, scheduled auctions, and REO bank repossessions – were reported on 212,764 U.S. properties. That figure equates to one in every 611 housing units with a foreclosure filing.
The latest numbers from RealtyTrac mark the 10th straight month the company has recorded year-over-year decreases in foreclosure activity and the lowest monthly total since November 2007.
RealtyTrac’s data show that default notices (NOD, LIS) were filed for the first time on a total of 59,516 U.S. properties in July. Foreclosure auctions (NTS, NFS) were scheduled for 85,419 homes last month.
Lenders repossessed a total of 67,829 properties (REO) in July.
“Unfortunately, the falloff in foreclosures is not based on a robust recovery in the housing market but on short-term interventions and delays that will extend the current housing market woes into 2012 and beyond,”…James Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s CEO
DSNEWS Article
Now the government wants to not only own GM and Chrysler but apparantly wants to own a property management company… COngress is proposing renting the REO properties back to the defaulting homeowners or others…. what?
Why not free up credit lines, increase the FHA loan limits and get rid of the red tape and start processing these foreclsoures for market. I do not know what is going on in Idaho but in Orlando they would sell as fast as they hit the market. The sooner we rip off the bandaid the sooner we start to recover.
Every 2 houses sold creates 1 full time job and brings 60k to the community over the next 5 years. Sounds like a recovery plan to me Obama.
I can see it now, the new section 8 rental units coming to your community.
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/bill-introduced-to-support-foreclosure-rentals-2011-08-01
Bottom Line
Every month I document my predictions and keep them here unaltered for anyone to go back and track. I am usually correct, I have to admit I was wrong on one item upfront..I have been warning about the inevitable rise in interest rates. Bernacke last week came out and stated that he will not raise interest rates for at least 2 years… ! This is unprecedented and frankly one of the most ignorant acts I have ever seen by the FED, and the list is long.
I am all for low interest rates but the rates should have been raised a year ago to stave off hyper inflation. All Bernackes decision does is even further devalue our dollar and weaken the housing market on a national level.
Is this the best our country has to offer for these positions of power? Every opportunity they do the exact opposite of the correct decision. Embarassing and costly to everyone in this nation, I am personally sickened every day by the news.
The ripple effect of the robo-signing debacle is still echoing thru our nation, manipulating home values and delaying the recovery. The only positive note is the stabilaztion of property values, the lack of inventory has caused an almost 2006 market boom on accuretly priced properties, again I spent a lot of time on this last month and it is and will continue thru the end of the year.
The REO’s are starting to come thru the process again, slowly the inventory will ramp up by 4th qtr.
ORLANDO MARKET CONDITIONS
As for the Orlando market, which I am involved in on a daily basis. I see alot of demand for quality housing and nothing to buy… with over 35 cash investors and well over 60 active ready and willing buyers as current clients… I am having a hard time finding suitable options in the current inventory.
Couple this with the lack of new housing construction and we have ourselves a mini boom in property values waiting to happen, especially with Bernacke’s unprecedneted announcement of rates remaining flat over next 2 years.
This was in today’s AOL real estate page, Hunters Creek in Orlando, Florida was named the most affordable place to live in the United States ! ( I have been selling homes in this community since the day I started in real estate in 1998)
http://realestate.aol.com/blog/gallery/most-affordable-places-to-buy-a-home/
Selling? with inventory this low, I am selling homes in record time and achieving no appraisal contingency contracts on many of my listings…. this is significant because the appraisals, as you know if you are an avid reader of this blog, are the main reason for the flat housing market.
With buyers fighting over the few properties out there, I am able to achieve the no appraisal contingency clause for the first time in over 5 years.
IMPORTANT ALERT FOR SHORT SALE SELLERS
If you are underwater, you better get your butt in gear, this is the last year of debt forgiveness on Obamas Bill for the hosuign recovery. After this year you will not be able to be exempt from your losses on your primary home from a short sale. This is very important, call me today to get this started.
DEBT FOREGIVENESS ACT
I am still one of the few and one of the first to earn the CDPE (certified distressed property expert) designations and have helped many families get out from under their mortgages…many with no deficiency judgements and in some cases several thousand dollars in their pockets !!
I am also one of the only agents in Central Florida in charge of representing Bank of AMericas approved short sale program. First of it’s kind in the nation.
The time is now, you have only 4 months left, call me today if you know anyone that is considering a short sale.
BUYING
While prices have gone up, the Orlando market has still turned back the clock to around 2003 pricing, coupled with historic low interest rates and sellers that have been softened by the economy and the housing market. Now is the time to strike and get your family into the perfect communtiy. Or maybe it is that bigger home for your growing family… or possibly that perfect school district.
Just because I am obtaining no appraisal contingencies on my lsiting does not mean that all Realtors are created equal. Not everyone can do what I do to obtain the terms I achieve for my sellers, so lets get out and find that perfect home and start negotiating.
INVESTING
The same reasoning as last month… the 50% decrease in condo and townhome inventory has created a feeding frenzy on what comes on. I do not forsee this ending so get in now before the price goes up again… townhomes & single family homes under 150k with garages in prime locations will allow you to invest in a solid performer.
Providing monthly cash flow that will outpace any other investment at same risk levels and also provide future appreciaiton to hedge the inevitable inflation being caused by our current leaders policies and decisions.
Get out of the stock market and invest in America… More importantly invest in the tourist capital of the United States… Central Florida. Tourism is up 7% the 2nd qtr already !
Tourism up in Florida
Florida also has many attractive tax benefits as well as being a judicial state for foreclosures ! As evident with the last 5 years of housing issues.
With 6,538,000 households at least 30 days late, the lack of new housing starts, the fact that Orlando is one of the few metropolitan cities that still has the majority of its highway signs in english and experiences no snow all year round… why wouldn’t you invest your money in rental properties.
I have an amazing property mangement company that will handle everything for you after purchase as well, they will screen tenants, generate the lease , collect security and rents and handle the day to day issues that may arise with property rentals.
Call today and get on my HOME RUN LIST.
I can not even provide you with a top 10 buys today, there is nothing for sale and everything I liked is already under contract as of the time I write this newsletter.
Getting on the HOME RUN list has never been more crucial than at this time.
Rons Rant
Random thoughts and complaints, not real estate related but things you may or may not be aware of.
“The experts” in Washington continue to plague this economic recovery at every level with their policies and solutions, the incompetence is truly overwhelming….
Raising the debt ceiling was absurd when all we have to do is cut the foreign aid to our “enemies” and wealthy nations alike.
Cutting entitlement programs and programs aimed at assisting illegal aliens woudl be another easy place to trimt he budget.
Yet I see in the news yesterday that the Orange County school budget was cut by over $500 a student…. WTF? we have one of the highest drop out rates of the modern world. I really do not understand how my country works anymore?
We will ok funding for a 1.1 million dollar bus so Obama can campaign on the tax payers dime but we cut funding for children?
Our government green lighted the Fast and Furious gun running covert operation, spending millions to give guns to mexican drug lords but threatens to deny our veteran’s their paychecks?
Obama gives a private company in Brazil 2 BILLION dollars for offshore drilling while denying it off our own coast? Putting thousands out of work and jeopardizing our national security due to oil dependency.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203863204574346610120524166.html
The list goes on and on,
Heres another question, when does losing 395,000 in 30 days with no job growth considered a good thing? It was this month…. We really need to start beating corrupt journalism back. It is really dumbing down the genral public, with the education cuts and our mass medias inaccurate spins on reality, no wonder we have the leaders we have in place.
Simple solutions to make America great. (it is not taxing the portion of our citizens that pay 85% of the entire collected tax revenue)…..
close the border to illegals. Punish landlords and employers who pay off the books and collect under the table…immediately this will genrate billions in tax revenue
stop funding security for political and community events, if an organiztion wants to demonstrate make them pay for the security…. I am really sick of the millions being spent on special interest groups parades and events. It has to stop on the tax payers dime.
Stop funding foreign aid to countries that do not need it. Yes send aid to the starving, yes send groups to help 3rd world countries build wells and schools…. do not send tanks to over throw another countries government. Do not send billions to china, they are a communist country and own the majority of our debt. Why does Saudia Arabia need our money?
Speaking of Saudi Arabia, we could cover our entire defense budget just charging many of these countries for our protection and policing, but we dont.
If we do go to war, do not be ashamed to reap the spoils. Did you know we found the largest lithium deposit in the world in Afganistan, what did we do…. we relinqueshed our rights to it. These sheep herders and bomb makers had no idea it was even there. Lithium is one of the rarest minerals on earth. I might be overstepping the P.C. boundary on this one but it has to be said. 1 trillion dollars in estimated value, we are the only country in history to ever do something like this.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html
Stop extended unemployment benefits, instead have recipients work for the benefits. This countries infrastructure is 60 years old. The 2 trillion in stimulous that was fleeced from our hands has brought about no significant bridge or highway renovation or construction as promised. Instead it was a prop up of the financial institutions so they can buy back T bills after China said they were not going to buy more.
Did you know our banks are sitting on more cash than they have ever had in their vaults in the history of our country right now ? Yet there have been fewer loans underwritten than in over 30 years and the banks are actually starting to charge holders of large accounts to bank at their bank?
This is the complete opposite of a banking business model? anyone explain this to me?
The list I have to fix this country can go on forever, it is pretty simple in fact, reduce taxes, reduce spending, retract obama care and start to consolodate government agencies.
Increase tax breaks, small business incentives, tax deductions for home ownership and defense and border patrol spending.
I am sorry for the politcal rant… I stepped away and reread it in the hopes of deleting it since it is not real estate related but I ended up adding more to it !
Can’t wait until this current congress and presidency is out of office for good.
Achievements:
Cuurently ranked 29 out of 18,409 ORRA board members for total volume closed for 2011
Number 1 Selling Agent at Remax Properties SW, Remax Properties SW is also the highest producing real etate office in Orlando.
Earned Orlando Magazines Hot 100 Realtors award again
Earned Zaggats 5 star in customer service again
Thank you to all my past and current clients for their confidence in my abilites to obtain their real estate and financial goals thru the acquisition of real estate.
My business excells due to your referrals of my services to your friends and family. I thnak you for the continued support.
Wrap Up
Most important item is that if you are underwater or have a friend or family member that is. They need to call me yesterday. Time is running out on the foreclosure debtforgiveness plan , expiring beginning of 2012.
I have a road map for success in this area of real estate and the answers to most of the questions that arise.
Secondly, I want to thank everyone for continuing to send me relevant articles for the blog. I have to apologize, I have slacked the last month on postings. Was on vacation and really busy staying ahead of the competition. Ran out of time. I am 2 days late on this newsletter even, it takes hours to compile and a life time of knowledge to compose.
I am always available for any questions that you may have regarding real estate. Easiest way to reach me is thru email at RontheRealtor@msn.com
Enjoy the rest of August.
God Bless our troops overseas and the families they leavve behind.