Another great newsletter packed with data, diagnosis, predictions and commentary.
The final month of summers data is finally out and August did not disappoint me, I was dead on with my spring predictions. The incredible lack of inventory due to the robo signing freeze hangover from 2010 and “traditional” sellers unwillingness ( or better yet inability) to match current REO sales prices in their neighborhood…. coupled with incredibly high demand fueled by 16 year low interest rates… has played out the scenario that I predicted. Stabalization and higher prices.
I am not going to pat myself on the back, anyone can tell you low supply + high demand = higher prices. Also anyone that reads my blog regularly knows how the media spins the seasonal buying data any way they want for sensationalism.
The summer months in a traditional selling cycle consists primarily of end user/ owner occupant sales. The sellers are usually well taken care of homes that warrant the highest dollars and are in fact what the buyers want.
Thanks to the housing collapse ,crooked individuals in power and corrupt experts in postions of authority at every level, we have a stalled out housing market. The demand is there, oh boy is it there. the issue is there is nothing to buy and there is nothing being built.
This year as the last 3 years had sellers finding it very hard to compete with current appraisal values from the distressed sales on the block. I have spent pages discussing the appraisal nightmare caused by the Obama administration under the vail of consumer protection, since the month it was passed in 3/08.
What made this summer different was that while REO listings were filling the void the last few years with options for families to buy at bargain prices and add sweat equity, these options have not hit the market… Oh we see them every day while driving the communities. But they still are not for sale. Again pages of information on my blog regarding shadow inventory, in fact had a lot of great info last month regarding very accurate numbers and how it will impact the market for next 2 years.
We need to get these homes back on the market..the perfect storm has arrived.. I discussed this 2 months ago as well, I hate to keep going back but trust me it all ties in, the market has stabilized in Orlando, the shortage of inventory has given the appraiser comparables to draw from for many months to come on an upward trend… 21% increase in median price since January in fact.
My REO sales team just returned from the largest REO convention of the year in Dallas today. So big in fact George Bush and Rudy Giuliani were the star speakers. The shadow inventory is going to start coming into the light next quarter. I repeat, the shadow inventoryis coming into the light starting quarter.
Inventory will start to increase. With this golden ticket of man made inventory shortage the banks will definitely do this systematically. I still cant tell you for the life of me if this was an incredibnly orchestrated plan from the get go by bank masterminds or if the banks fell in a pile of shit and smell like roses. The way the country has been run lately I would not be surprised if there is crap all over their suits and they are just going to ride this pony to the show.
Either way. We will see a steady increase in prices as long as they systematically release. I do not believe they will flood the market. I almost know this for certain… heck bank of America just announced this week 10 % of their entire work force is getting laid off. (Will the white house still be able to manipulate our unemployment number to still be at 9.1%… what a crock, we all know it is between 14-16.5%)
I am very excited for the future in the Orlando market, again as discussed many times over last 6 months… NO ONE IS BUILDING. We will have a major housing shortage in the next 3 years…. we will see prices climb thru the roof like 2006. I know this will be the case. I hope to own as many homes at these discounted prices as I can.
Well I did this a little backwards and got carried away , lets discuss the August Data….
Just the Facts:
Orlandos Median Sales Price $115,000 …21.18% increase from 1/11
REO Median Sales Price $81,750
Short sale median sales price $96,950
Normal sales comprised 41.33% of all sales in August
2,342 closed sales
*51 % drop in REO sales from August 2010 !
32% increase in short sale closings from 8/10
10,055 listings for sale on ORRA MLS, down 39% from 8/10
4.29 month supply of inventory at current sales pace
9,502 pending sales … 8,945 in 8/10
101 average days on the market with 95.05% of asking price achieved
4.26 % average interest rate… lowest in 16 years !
The most comprehensive data tracking publication dealing with Orlando real estate:
All of the data quoted in my newsletter comes directly from the most accurate data source on the topic, ORRA website, here is a link to Septembers Market Statistic Newsletter if you want to read further:
Factors that are and will affect the market
To tie in with my opening tangent…. an important development of the governments decision to lower FHA loan limits in an effort to start fazing out the government backed loan giants is going to have astrong immediate impact in the market place.
Instead of going thru it all again here is the link to the post on 8/24:
http://rontherealtor.com/2011/08/important-fha-loan-limits-to-be-reduced-in-2012/
They have cut FHA buying power by a little over $80,000 in Orange county. FHA purchases have comprised over 75% of all financed home purchases during the collapse. They offer lower down payments and less stringent debt ratios to qualify. They used to be pretty competitive on closing costs until the Obama Regime raised the funding upfront fee almost a whole 1% over last year.
On the positive note ,again I can not say this enough, appraisals have begun to stabilize with the last 6 months inventory shortage (I still chuckle when I say this when we have millions of properties in the shadows) and the fact that there are no viable new communties being built.
Demand is already here, especially for the next 6 weeks. OCT 1 is the deadline for FHA higher loan limit purchases.
IF YOU ARE THINKING OF SELLING 275-375K value properties… CALL ME IMMEDIATELY> your buyer pool is going to get a jolt until conventional banks can really rev up their 5% down programs. Theya re coming out but still hard to qualify for them. Do not wait, sell it now before they release the shadow inventory.
I can not stress this enough. Your home will sell quickly if priced accordingly.
Obviously if you are a marginal credit buyer that desires a home in the 275-375k price range move now.
SHORT SALE SELLERS.
Again, I have mentioned this many times over last few months, your window for the obama debt forgiveness bill runs out in 2012, if you are underwater and need to sell now is the time. I am achieving no deficiency settlements on my short sale closings on a consistant basis…
this means you walk away from your home that you owe $100,000′s over what it is worth with just a bad credit score. This is fixed in less than 2 years and you can qualify for a conventional loan in 3 years !
Call me to discuss how. If you know someone that needs my help MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THEM CALL ME. I have helped many get out of this situation with many more in the process.
INVESTING
Amazing time to buy, if you can get the winning bid. Prices continue to go up. Better yet rents are also going up. There is still much room for appreciation, especially int he areas I concentrate on. I have worked the same area for over 12 years and know it like the back of my own hand.
Right now it is really hard to get you a top 10, heck last month I didnt have one to put in the newsletter…. here are 8 good buys available today.
Ron the Realtors Best REO buys in SW Orlando
If you are thinking of investing or know someone that is, call me to discuss how to get on my homerun list. I work with many cash investors from around the world and they get the best opportunities on the market. many times before they even come for sale.
Bottom Line
I have been all over the place on this newsletter, I apologize… lack of time with business doing so well, battling the flu (3 kids back at school bring back home the H1N1 virus to me) and the fact that it is 1 a.m. that I am writing this to make sure it gets out to you on time..I want to say a few things that I want to stress.
The market in Orlando is not the market in North Dakota. The employers are here, the tax shelter is here, the tourism is here, the appreciation potential is here, snow is NOT HERE>
My calls from my North & North East clients will start to ramp up in the next 30 days, yes it is still 70′s at 4 pm but 50 at night is starting to get the ideas of living in Orlando back in the mind. Next will be 60/40, then 40/25 and the always predicatable 20/4
International buyers are buying up this area in cash purchases like I have never seen before.
Interest rates are very low.
Again BUILDERS ARE NOT BUILDING.
Contact me anytime with any questions.
Rons Rant:
9/11 – Still the most horriffic thing I have ever seen.Of course I remember the day. I actually still got a home sale pending ! Will never forget it. A house on Kiawa street owned by the Quartarellas. Still clients of mine today. I sold the american dream on its darkest day. I never stop working, this is a testament to it.
Crapulous 2…. if Congress passes this bill I think I may lose hope for our Democracy. The first Stimulous bill was suppose to do this but like I said so many times on this blog it was a sham to filter the cash to the unions and be a personal biggy bank for the government elite and their friends.
Can you believe the $535,000,000 Solyndra crime spree? Where did a half a trillion of dollars go in 3 months from the time of receivorship to the filing of bankruptcy. reat job guys… and the children in orange county had $500 per student cut this school year for lack of funds.
Obama Care waiver, please be aware that 2,547 waivers have been granted to the largest corporations for obama care, they all expire in 2013… 1 year after the next election
I do not know if you read this, I posted it on 6/17 but if you havent heard the word DHIMITUDE, you will soon enough if we do not appeal this obamonation.read this…and then clean up the puke.
Campaigner in Chief buys not one but 2 1.1 million dollar buses for his campaign tour on our dime? This guy drives the bus to the rally, has the second bus FLOWN to the next location and drives the 1st bus to the airport after the ralley to go to the next bus. Are you F@#$ing kidding me? This is just another slap in the face.
I am going to leave with this… the easiest way to fix everything , (other than impeachment) I know how you can get over a million jobs in less than a month… how? eliminate the EPA and allow companies to drill and refine our fossil fuels. This will explode our economy and our national security over night… I do not get why we do not do this… we are a nation run by the corrupt, it has to stop.
Get million plus to work, that frees up welfare ( I puke typing it) and 99 weeks of unemployment. It will bolster our tax revenues, increase housing purchases, basically blow this country thru the roof and with in 2 -4 years we would most likely have $1 gas …. that will over come the FEDs 18 printing press inflation issue on the horizon.
why can a local Realtor figure this out but the best our country has to offer can not? Our president says green technology, but this nobel peace price winner signs executive order for no fly zone over Lybia. I had no idea what that costs,do you know how many MILLIONS of Gallons of JET fuel that burns a day or how much fuel Obama wasted flying buses on his midwest bus tour?
Please will someone end the madness… all I want is a qualified small unintrusive government.
I just finished my second Thomas Jefferson Biography. I consider him the greatest president we have ever had. Posted this on his a few months back, great read
Im done for now, as you can see if you read my blog regularly, I put out a lot of great information out there for you in place. Information is the key.
Please forward my blog to those you care about. As always after reading my blog you will be the most educated and up to date person in any discussion regarding Orlando Real Estate. My clients are the most informed in the market… which is why I have relationships for life with all my clients.
My business succeeds on the referrals from you so iof anyone you know needs to buy ro sell make sure they have my number or at least the www.RontheRealtor.com website to get in touch with me. They will always thank you afterwards.
Until next time be safe and be successful.
Thank you to all that have served and lost for my Country and the loved ones they have left behind.